Wednesday’s Bet: The Professor

Happy Wednesday!

Today’s Lesson:

Sometimes experts are wrong.

Should we take an experts word over a novice? Most of the time, yes. But what happens when you always trust the experts? What happens is you rely on an outside party so heavily, you stop thinking for yourself.

Take the “hot-hand fallacy” for instance. This is the definition:

“The hot-hand fallacy describes our tendency to believe that a successful streak is likely to lead to further success. For example, if a basketball player has made three consecutive shots, we may believe he has a greater chance of making the fourth than is actually likely.”

It is widely believed by psychologists and other experts in the field of cognitive function that the “hot-hand” is a random occurrence. That one outcome does not affect a future outcome. No offense to the people that came up with this “fallacy”, but the nerds that believe this to be true clearly have never played sports.

You’re telling me that a hitter in baseball doesn’t get “hot”? That every at-bat is a random outcome? That him seeing the ball better has nothing to do with his next at bat? You’re telling me Steph Curry or Damian Lillard don’t get “hot”? That if they make multiple shots in a row the basket doesn’t look bigger and their form doesn’t become more replicable?

I say BS.

Anyways, I haven’t lost a bet yet. Take in that information any way you’d like.


Ride with the hot hand. Unless you think it’s a fallacy…

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