¡Hola y bienvenido al Open de Mexico! En Vidanta Vallarta, necessito largo approach y driver bueno y no necessito el putter. Yo no se mas espanol so let’s see what we can do in the betting market.
Jon Rahm
+260 to win
Plus 260 to win a golf tournament is NUTS. DraftKings is saying it is more likely that Jon Rahm beats 140+ professional golfers over four days than it was for the Miami Heat to win game 4 of the first round of the eastern conference playoffs. Much like the Miami Heat winning game four, Rahm is in a great spot to win this tournament. He just won the Masters and this field is more similar to the Augusta National Women’s amateur than it is to the Masters, though Rose Zhang probably would have finished T5 in any of these events. If you are good with +230 take it. If you are good with Jon Rahm being $12,000 on draftkings DFS, play him. Playing Rahm is never a bad idea but just telling you to bet Rahm every week is no fun. So let’s pretend he isn’t here for this article.
Matchup pick
Aaron Rai -120 over Ben Martin
As I sat between 16 and 17 at TPC Sawgrass on Saturday of THE PLAYERS, I saw for the first time with my own two eyes a ball go from the tee box into the hole as Aaron Rai hit a hole-in-one and had the crowds going nuts for a memorable Saturday. I wish I kept that memory at the top of my mind when I was hitting the betting board since that day as Aaron has been playing really well (for him at least). A T13 at the team event in Louisiana is his best finish since November but a top 20 at THE AFFOREMENTIONED PLAYERS and a top 30 at Valero has been buoyed by hot starts and excellent off the tee play puts Rai in an interesting position to make a big play this week. Rai gained 7 strokes ball striking at the RBC heritage but really struggled around the greens. The course this week is nowhere near the short game challenge as Heritage so a similar ball striking week will see Rai vault up the leader board. But for the sake of this bet he only needs to beat one player, Ben Martin. Martin has been playing well in recent weeks. Yes, he missed the cut with Chesson Hadley last week but but 3 top tens and 7 made cuts prior have people very high on him. This is a good time to fade him ever so slightly. Martin is not the off the tee player that Rai is and a lot of his great finishes rely on the putter. I think both will be successful this week but give me Rai in this matchup
Finishing Position
Cameron Champ +140 top 40
I’m falling for it again. Cameron Champ has done very little but miss cuts on the PGA tour recently. In fact, his only made cut this year is a T53 at the Farmers. Butttttttttt, he finished T6 here last year, gaining nearly seven strokes with the putter and 6 strokes strokes off the tee. The form is clearly not there, but the club head speed is and I will always fall for this guy at the bombers paradises and the lack of difficulty around and on the greens means plus money for a top 40 is worth the attempt. Cam champ has the ability to win tournaments on the PGA Tour, he’s done it thrice in his career and really had the chance to do so last year if it wasn’t for a blowup hole we can all relate to (if I remember correctly he hit a drive into the water and instead of re-teeing it, he dropped way back and went into the water again). I don’t expect Champ to be on the leader board come Sunday, but a top 40 is well within his reach.
Winner
Taylor Pendrith +5500
Last time I wrote about Taylor, I told y’all to fade him and bet him to miss the cut. He finished T7 that week so I am telling you again he will miss the cut (wink). Pendrith is as long as they come off the tee and has gained strokes in that category all but four weeks over the last year. Pendrith is yet to win on Tour but the Canadians have been putting up a lot of victories lately and this course is as close to perfect for him as there can be. Winning this week will be tough (winning any week is tough) but in the non Rahm category this is worth the attempt. Maybe all he needs is for me to write about him.
The Jesster’s Laughably good pick of the week
It is NFL draft week and with Bryce Young looking like the number one overall pick at -800 lets move to the Texans at 2. CJ Stroud has fallen to +330 and that makes no sense to me. I think we the sports media, get bored around draft time and overreact to a lot throughout. Last year Sauce Gardner was the favorite to go to the Texans despite Stingley being the better prospect the whole time (clearly they were wrong but that’s not the point). I think CJ stroud has been the pick and the Texans wanted to see if they could get a King’s ransom for the pick so they spread some rumors. if you parlay CJ stroud to go #2 with Jon Rahm to finish top 5 at -150 you get a +616 return. Put your life savings on it and Marvel at your retirement coming early.
