HELLO AND WELCOME BACK FOR MY FAVORITE GOLF WEEK OF THE YEAR. I WOULD APOLOGIZE FOR THE LACK OF LOWER CASE LETTERS BUT ITS THE PLAYERS AND WITH THE PLAYERS ALL LETTERS REQUIRE CAPITALIZATION (quick lowercase aside, I have a friend/classmate who works at TPC Sawgrass and every time he texts me about the PLAYERS the ‘PLAYERS’ has to be capitalized so it is a thing). THIS WEEK AT TPC SAWGRASS IN PONTE VERDA BEACH FLORIDA, WE HAVE THE MARQUEE EVENT ON THE PGA TOUR CALENDAR WHICH STILL BOAST THE BEST FIELD OF PLAYERS AND THE LARGEST PURSE THIS SIDE OF SAUDI ARABIA. TPC SAWGRASS IS KNOWN AS A VERY UNFORGIVING COURSE, LAYERED WITH TREES AND WATER HAZARDS THAT LEAVE WAYWARD SHOTS IN IMPOSSIBLE LIES IF THE PLAYER IS LUCKY ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE TO TAKE A DROP. THE UNFORGIVING NATURE OF THE COURSE LEADS TO “RANDOMNESS” IN WINNERS WHERE NO ONE HAS WON THE PLAYERS FOR A SECOND TIME IN CLOSE TO 20 YEARS. UNFORGIVING CONDITIONS MEANS AN EMPHASIS ON DRIVING ACCURACY AND APPROACH PLAY BUT CAM SMITHS WIN LAST YEAR SHOULD REMIND US THAT A HOT PUTTER CAN MAKE UP FOR POOR BALL STRIKING ANYWHERE. ONLY ONE GUY CAN WIN THE PLAYERS AND THE OVER FOUR MILLION DOLLARS THAT COMES WITH THE GOLD MAN, BUT WE CAN ALL WIN SOME MONEY WATCHING ALONG.
MATCHUP
CAM YOUNG OVER VIKTOR HOVLAND +105
THIS IS PICK IS COMING FROM A DEEP SEATED DISLIKE FOR VIKTOR HOVLAND THOUGH I THINK THIS BET HAS VALUE. LAST YEAR’S ROOKIE OF THE YEAR WINNER ON THE PGA TOUR CAM YOUNG IS THIS YEARS “PROVE IT GUY”. HIS PROFILE IS LITTERED WITH HIGH FINISHES IN BIG TIME EVENTS BUT HE’S YET TO HOIST A TROPHY AFTER THE END ON ANY SUNDAY. LUCKILY THIS PICK IS NOT TO BEAT THE FIELD, JUST ONE MAN. CAM HAS THE BALL STRIKING ABILITY TO WIN THIS TOURNAMENT, HAVING GAINED 7 STROKES BALL STRIKING IN EACH OF HIS LAST TWO TOURNAMENTS, BUT THE PUTTER HAS NOT BEEN THERE THIS YEAR QUITE LIKE IT WAS LAST YEAR. IN SIX MEASURED STARTS THIS YEAR, HE IS YET TO GAIN A STROKE PUTTING FOR THE WHOLE TOURNAMENT BUT STILL HAS FINISHED TOP TWENTY IN EACH OF HIS LAST TWO STARTS. MEANWHILE VIKTOR HOVLAND GAINED STROKES PUTTING LAST WEEK AT BAY HILL BUT HE HAS NOT GAINED STROKES IN HIS SHORT GAME OVERALL THIS YEAR. VIKTOR’S BALL STRIKING HAS BEEN JUST AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER THAN CAMS BUT THE SHORT GAME STRUGGLES ALWAYS GIVE ME PAUSE WITH VIK AND IF I AM BETTING WHO I THINK WILL HAVE A BETTER SHORT GAME PERFORMANCE THIS WEEK (WHICH I LITERALLY AM) I WILL GO WITH CAM AND THE PLUS MONEY. I THINK BOTH VIKTOR AND CAM HAVE WIN EQUITY THIS WEEK, BUT CAM HAS TOO MUCH UPSIDE TO IGNORE PLUS MONEY TO BEAT HOVLAND
THE HOLLYWOOD HOGE 90- MEMORIAL FIRST ROUND LEADER
TAYLOR MONTGOMERY +9000
FIRST ROUND LEADER IS ONE OF MY FAVORITE BETS IN GOLF. FAVORITES ARE 20-1 AT LEAST AND THESE GUYS ARE SO GOOD CLOSE TO ANYONE CAN SNAP OFF A NINE UNDER PAR ON A THURSDAY EVEN IF THEY ARE OH I DON’T KNOW, 90-1 TO LEAD AFTER ONE. ENTER MY FIRST EVER DEEP DIVE INTO GOLF GAMBLING, COINCIDENTALLY APPROXIMATELY ONE YEAR AGO FOR THE PLAYERS. PUTTING A HEAVY EMPHASIS ON APPROACH PLAY I FOUND A GUY NAMED TOM HOGE AT 90-1 WHO LUCKILY FOR ME WAS GOING OUT IN THE EARLY MORNING WAVE IN WHAT TURNED INTO A 3 DAY FIRST ROUND THAT AT THE END OF IT SAW TOM HOGE TIED FOR FIRST AND MY BANK ACCOUNT LOOKING FAT (THAT FAT IS EXTRA CAPITALIZED). AS A RESULT WE NOW HAVE THIS SECTION AT THE PLAYERS. THIS YEAR MY FAVORITE 90-1 PLAY IS TAYLOR MONTGOMERY THOUGH I GENUINELY LIKE ALL 5 90-1S AVAILABLE ON DRAFTKINGS. WHEN SELECTING A FIRST ROUND LEADER A FEW THING S TO FOCUS ON. 1) WHAT TIME ARE THEY TEEING OFF? GREENS GET FIRMER AND FASTER AS THE DAY PROGESSES SO GOING OUT EARLY MAKE THE COURSE A LITTLE EASIER AND ANY ADVANTAGE HELPS. 2) LOOK FOR GUYS WITH A HIGH RATE OF 5+ STROKES GAINED IN A ROUND. 5+ IS INHERENTLY ARBITRARY BUT MOST PLACES DON’T TRACK SIX SO FIVE IS THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE. JON RAHM LED AFTER ONE LAST WEEK AND HAD GAINED 7 STROKES TO THE FIELD SO 5+ IS USUALLY NECESSARY TO LEAD AFTER ONE. TAYLOR MONTGOMERY TEES OFF AT 7:01 AND HAS GAINED 5+ STROKES IN A ROUND 13.89% IN HIS LAST 36 ROUNDS. MONTHGOMERY IS NOT THE BALL STRIKER THE WAY HOGE WAS LAST YEAR BUT THAT PUTTER IS SPECIAL AND ALL HE HAS TO DO IS HAVE ONE GOOD ROUND BALL STRIKING. MY STRATERGY WHEN I REALLY BET FIRST ROUND LEADERS (AND THIS DOES NOT MEAN YOU SHOULD DO THE SAME AS ME, BUT FOR REFERENCE) TAKE A FAVORITE (RAHM RORY SCHEFFLER), TAKE A MID LEVEL LONG SHOT AND TAKE A LONG SHOT. FAVORITES SHOULD LEAD EVERY SO OFTEN AND JUST ONE LONG SHOT NEEDS TO HIT A YEAR TO MAKE THIS A PROFITABLE EXCURSION. THIS WEEK MY FIRST ROUND PICKS ARE MONTGOMERY, RAHM/RORY/SCHEFFLER, TOM KIM (BECAUSE I WILL BE WALKING WITH HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND), AND JHONATTAN VEGAS WHO IS 100-1.
WINNER, WINNER
TOM KIM +4000 AND COLLIN MORIKAWA +2200
TOM KIM’S RUN AS THE HOTTEST GOLFER IN THE WORLD MAY HAVE ENDED, BUT THAT MIGHT JUST BE PERFECT FOR THIS WEEK. FOUR STARTS REMOVED FROM A T6 AT THE AMEX, TOM KIM HAS NOT BEEN THE ELITE PLAYER THAT SAW HIM WIN TWICE IN HIS FIRST 11 TOUR STARTS BUT A BALL STRIKERS PARADISE LIKE SAWGRASS MIGHT BE THE COURSE HE NEEDS TO RETURN TO THE WINNERS CIRCLE. THIS YEAR HE HAS HAD GOOD PUTTING WEEKS AND GOOD BALL STRIKING WEEKS, BUT HAS YET TO DO BOTH IN THE SAME WEEK. IF HE CAN PUT IT TOGETHER FOR A WEEKEND HE CAN ABSOLUTELY WIN THIS THING. AND AT 40-1 IT IS TOUGH TO FIND BETTER ODDS
MORIKAWA HAS MISSED TWO OF HIS LAST THREE CUTS AND HAS NOT LOOKED LIKE THE GUY THAT DOMINATED TWO MAJORS EARLY IN HIS CAREER. BUT MISSED CUTS HAPPEN AND WE CAN BLAME THE WIND ON THE LAST ONE THOUGH WHY HE CAN’T PLAY IN THE WIND AT HAS TO BE LOOKED INTO BY PEOPLE SMARTER THAN ME. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO TOM KIM. CAN HE PUT IT TOGETHER FOR ONE WEEKEND? HE HAS 4 TOP 10S AND 2 MISSED CUTS IN 6 STARTS THIS YEAR SO I THINK THE ANSWER IS YES. ONE OF THESE WEEKS COLIN IS GOING TO WIN A TOURNAMENT BY 4 STROKES AND REMIND THE WORLD WHY HE’S ARGUABLY THE BEST BALL STRIKER IN THE WORLD. I THINK IT CAN BE THIS WEEK AND I WOULD LIKE TO WIN WHEN HE DOES.
THE JESSTERS LAUGHABLY GOOD PICK OF THE WEEK
AFTER LAST WEEK WHEN I SAID “BET JON RAHM UNTIL HE RUINS YOUR CARD” AND THEN HE PROCEEDED TO RUIN MY CARD I SHOULD AVOID ABSOLUTES LIKE THAT BUT HERE WE GO AGAIN. JASON DAY HAS BEEN PLAYING GREAT AND HE IS +175 TO BE THE TOP AUSTRALIAN WHERE HE JUST NEEDS TO BEAT OUT ADAM SCOTT MIN WOO LEE AND 4 GUYS WHO AT THIS TIME ARE NOT PLAYING GREAT GOLF (WATCH HARRISON ENDYCOTT FINISH T4 THIS WEEK AND GIVE ME THE FINGER). AS LONG AS J-DAY IS PLUS MONEY TO BE THE BEST AUSSIE, I WILL BET IT AND SO SHOULD YOU.
CODY “THEJESSTER” JESS
