Ahhh yes, Super Bowl prop bets.
A tale as old as time. Why bet on silly things like over/under, or the spread, when you can just as easily bet on what color Gatorade the winning coach will get doused with, or how long it will take Chris Stapleton to belt out the National Anthem?
Let’s have some fun.
Let’s get a little wild.
Let’s win some Loot.
Tails has been the winning side 29 times, compared to 27 wins for heads during the Super Bowl era. The last two years it’s been heads, but 6 out of the previous 7 years before that the coin turned up tails.
So what’s it gonna be this year?
I’m bringing one Super Nuclear Whale Missile Play and one speculation prop to the table this year for The Bowl. The plan is to strike early with the S.N.W.M.P, then sit back and count our money as the speculation prop plays perfectly into our hands.
Super Nuclear Whale Missile Play: Opening Kickoff (Touchback -165)
Don’t get cute here. No one makes it this deep in the post-season by getting cute. Stick to the stats and hit Touchback (-165) with a Super Nuclear Whale Missile.
- Butker recorded touchbacks on 44/68 kickoffs this year (64.7% touchback rate)
- Jake Elliot recorded touchbacks on 63/91 kickoffs this year (69.2% touchback rate)
- Both kickers combined were 6/6 on touchbacks at State Farm Stadium this year
- Glendale, home of State Farm Stadium, sits at 1,070 feet of elevation
- Both kickers have proven nuts of steel and will come out for this game jacked up
On touchback rates alone, we got a 66% chance of cashing. Add into consideration the 5th bullet point and the odds sit somewhere in the 90%+ range. There’s no exact way to quantify for the 5th bullet point, but if history tells us anything, its worth about an extra 20-30%.
The beautiful State Farm Stadium has a roof so weather won’t be of effect. These early game bets will make or break your rest of the night. Coin toss and over/under national anthem could potentially spell the end of your night before it begins. Taking Touchback (-165) is a mathematical conclusion done through derivative processes and calculative computations, proven to save even the worst of gamblers (I don’t what that means, but its provocative). It’s a sure-fire way to watch one fall before you get completely obliterated on the rest of your prop-bets.
Speculation Play: AJ Brown Super Bowl MVP (+1300)
Last pick was about not getting cute… this is the exact opposite. I’m counting on Nick Sirianni to get cute. Everyone knows the freak that is AJ Brown. There really isn’t much to be said that isn’t already known. When AJ Brown succeeds, the Eagles succeed.
Big time players make big time plays in big time moments, and AJ Brown falls perfectly in that category. I just need Arthur Juan to have his normal 7 reception, 80 yards, and a receiving touchdown; then count on Nick Sirianni to channel his-inner Doug Pederson.
We all know the famous Philly, Philly play and it’s significance in Eagles history. We also know Nick Sirianni’s love for the camera (literally) and his ability to draw up home run shots. We also—also know that the Philly, Philly hasn’t fooled anyone since the Eagles first pulled it off right in front Tom Brady’s big, dumb, plastic face. But don’t count out Nick Sirianni drawing up some sort of ode to it, adding a new twist or turn.
If that twist or turn lands in AJ Brown’s hands, and ends in Jalen Hurts’s hands for a touchdown… we’re staring at Super Bowl MVP: Arthur Juan Brown Sr.
What’s worse than your favorite team not playing in the Big Game? The Broncos playing in the Big Game. Second worst? The Chiefs. Sure, watching Patrick Mahomes play the game of football is a true masterclass and so much fun, apologies to the good ones, but seeing the fans who booed the moment of silence against racism back in 2020 feel any happiness really gets under my skin. It should get under yours too. I think Philly’s pass rush can get it done this weekend, but I’m still terrified to place any bet against Mahomes and Reid. So, instead of betting on the game, let’s contribute to the machine and gamble on the commercials.
Props and odds courtesy of our overseas allies Bovada.
Which chip company commercial will air first?
- Doritos -130
- Pringles +100
Year after year, Doritos made my favorite commercials when I was younger; I’ll still randomly laugh alone in the car when I spontaneously think about the mouse trap commercial. However, I don’t really remember any of their recent commercials. I do remember Pringle’s commercial from last year where the kid gets hand stuck in the can and you follow him through the rest of his life. Pretty good one. They typically save the big guns for halftime or the second half, and I think Dorito’s reputation will get them there. I like Pringles +100 to air first.
Which snack company commercial will air first?
- M&Ms -150
- Doritos +150
Doritos will air after M&Ms unless Mars gives the people what they want. Here’s a prop that would get every gambler in America to tune in for: Will the green M&M be sexy again? Will they have massive honkers and a big bank for the stans who just wanted to watch a football game on their favorite network. I hope the Yellow guy will have a bulging hog to satisfy the each and every Big Game viewer. Now that the Millennials are starting to move into upper level marketing and advertising positions, I would argue there’s a non-zero chance of this happening, but I don’t think this is the year. M&Ms -150 airs first.