Welcome back my birdie buddies! Thank you for reading my par saving people! Sorry for the official oh-fer my eagle enviers! While many of my insights worked (Sam Burns did birdie two and Tom Kim did bounce back) my official card saw nothing hit and everything go wrong. Hell, even Jon Rahm took the win and has brought me right back to his door step as he is once again the favorite. This week are looking at the Farmers Insurance Open, taking place at the famed and cavernous Torrey Pines. 75% of the tournament will be played at the 7700 yard South Course, meaning length will matter and wedge talent will stand out. Due to conference championship week in the NFL, this tournament will be pushed up one day kicking off on Wednesday and ending on Saturday. As a result this column is being written on Monday matchups are inconsistent to find. Instead of a match-up finishing position and winner pick, I am instead going to write about four golfers (Jon Rahm, Taylor Montgomery, Max Homa, and Cameron Champ). I’ll discuss why I think they’re interesting this week and see what the best available DraftKings bet is available for all 4 golfers. These are not my top four for the tournament, but hopefully you can build a card that works for you once all the bets become available.
Jon Rahm
To Win odds +450
I feel like it’s deja vu all over again with Jon Rahm. Rahm walks into the Farmer’s the favorite again but this time with lower odds. I did not like the +650 last week and I do not like the +450 this week. That being said, the best odds are the ones that cash, and Rahm has been cashing. Jon Rahm is a fit at every course but is built for Torrey. He is long and excellent off the tee and and and and… There is not much else to say about him as a player, he’s the best in the world playing the best in the world.
Best Bet available right now Top 5 +105
I think the true play on Rahm is matchups/three balls/six shooters but amongst what I could find, plus money for a top five seems nice. This will keep some of the nail biting out when he and *insert random golfer* are tied going onto the back nine on Saturday. Normally, I would recommend a to lead after one and win but he does tee off from the south course on Wednesday so first round lead will be tough but I am no longer here to dissuade you from taking anything Jon Rahm at the moment. How you want to include him in your card is entirely up to you, but you are leaving money on the table if he is not somewhere on it.
Taylor Montgomery +2800 to win
Since Taylor Montgomery graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour at the end of last year, he has done little but ball out. An absolute shank on 17 last week cost Taylor a chance at his first tour victory, but he still finished 5th in a loaded tournament and has been top 15 in eight of nine tournaments since getting his PGA tour card. What has really been his calling card so far has been his putting. Taylor enters this tournament gaining 1.24 strokes putting, the only player in the field gaining over a stroke putting. While the flat stick is not the most important club in the bag at Torrey Pines, having the flattest of the flat stick is always helpful. Overall, the rest of his game has been inconsistent. He has been abysmal in at least one strokes gained category in every tournament except last week. But even with an inconsistent game elsewhere, his ability to putt always gives him the ability to compete
Favorite Bet Top American +1600
Top American is not as fun as top other country due to the amount of Americans that play every week and the amount of Americans at the top of the world rankings, but give me a chance to avoid Rahm and you got yourself an interesting bet. This only knocks out 3 guys with better odds than Taylor, but I learned my lesson about fading Rahm and Im last week and I am not prepared to do it again this week. This still leaves quite a few top players to beat but I didn’t want to give you another finishing position. I might be basic but I am not that basic. Take Taylor as the top American and hope there’s no island greens staring at him down the stretch.
Max Homa +2200 to win
He’s a really good player and he is constantly and consistently improving. While not super long off the tee (averaging 305 yards off the tee and being t54 in driving distance is NUTS. Like everyone reading this would kill to send balls that far and he’s just tour average. NUTS), he is solid off the tee and his scrambling ability keeps him close even when his tee shots don’t. Honestly, I just wanted to shoe horn the fact that he is my U.S open pick at the moment into this here article. The guy is good, the guys is fun, and the guy loves playing in cali (US Open at LA CC hint hint) Put him on your card this week and any week he’s in California.
Favorite Bet +2200 to win
I think my problem with this format is all my favorite bets clash with each other. In most sports that’s a problem/hedge. But in golf, all the odds are so massive, a to win does not really mess with a top American bet because neither are going to hit most of the time anyway. That being said one of these two bets will hit here, heck all of these bets will hit. Homa and Montgomery are in the same tier of golfer this week meaning a lot of the 3 balls/six shooters have them in the same group so anyway you look at it they’re competing against each other. Homa is good enough to win any tournament he plays in and if Rahm falters, I expect Homa to be right there.
Cameron Champ +18000 to win
This whole format was just a ploy to allow me to talk about my first favorite golfer, Cameron Champ. If was the 2020 PGA Championship and my long awaited return to sports gambling post COVID-19. I had never bet on golf before but a quick google search showed me Champ was the longest hitter on a long hitter’s course. I placed a top 10 at plus 1400 and a gambling addiction was born when he went t10 and has done little since. Two stats to focus on for Champ, he was number one in driver distance last year and number one in club head speed as well. It has been a rainy January at Torrey and that rough is thick. I’m talking three C’s thiccc. As a result, club head speed will be important when in the rough and slower club speed means more volatility going through the rough (it’s why you and me should always lay up in thick rough, but why would we actually do that?). Champ has one of the funkier finishing position charts on the tour. In his last seven he has 6 missed cuts and an 8 place finish. Champ has been top ten at The Masters, Top ten at a PGA championship and even won two tournaments, but has missed more cuts than not and his strokes gained matrix has a lot of dark red on it. This is the biggest gamble of a lot of gambles out there, but there is a lot of reward out there on Cam.
Favorite Bet Champ to top 40 +200(?)
I cannot find top 40 odds yet but Champ comes in at +550 to top 20 so 2-1 seems logical for a top 40. With his ability off the tee, Champ can be dangerous, but he fails time and time to keep it up. He has not teed it up in a professional event since November so hopefully he’s corrected some of the around the green issues and found a stroke he likes with the putter. I think there is a lot of value to find in Cam this week. He doesn’t have true win equity but I do have him 33rd in my personal custom model (btw, all data is from Rickrungood.com, data golf, and the PGA tours official website. If you are interested in golf data the latter two are a good place to start and rickrungood.com is a great place to help with modeling). Additionally on Cam, his tier is a lot of golfers with missed cut potential. This lines up well for matchups because there’s a good chance you’ll have a winner by Thursday night.
The Jesster’s Laughably good pick of the week
No Reason Just vibes. This weeks is a stupid parlay that’s just crazy enough to work. We’re going
Rahm to win with Homa to top five with Mav Mcnealy to top ten and Cam Champ to top 20 for a total payout of +78500. Bet your life savings on it (don’t do this) and retire on me.
About the Author
Do you think I can dunk a Basketball? I am 5’11” in real life and 6’2″ on the dating apps so I fell like I should be able to if I train. If you read this far hop in my instagram (codyjess1) or twitter dms ( _codyjess) and let me know. If you do I will give you an extra super secret golf bet.
Cody “The Jesster” Jess
